Southwest monsoon to set in early in Kerala and Karnataka

The southwest monsoon that normally arrives in June is anticipated to set in a week earlier this year with rains predicted to hit Kerala coast on May 23 and Karnataka coast two or three days later.

According to the forecast of Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation (CMMAS), more than normal amount of rainfall is predicted for West and Central India, excess rainfall in South and Northeast and deficit rainfall on the east coast and northwest.

Speaking at a meeting on “Monsoon 2007 – A preview” organized by Indian Meteorological Society in Bangalore, P Goswami of CMMAS said the forecast is based on a global circulation model, deduced from research initiatives. “It is different from the statistical model that Indian Meteorological Department general uses”, he said.

Claiming that the general countrywide forecasts were misleading, Goswami said India must invest in technologies and models that look at local conditions and specific climatic anomalies.

“Our accuracy is not good enough. For instance, during the rains of Mumbai on July 26, 2005, while most Indian institutes including CMMAS predicted no more than 400 mm of rainfall for the day, the actual amount that fell was 1,000 mm, causing so much damage”, he said.

When India could spend Rs 5 billion for a telescope to see farthest reaches of the solar system, Goswami sought to know why the country could not spend Rs 500 million for good computing facility that the developing world benefited from.

He also spoke about the need for higher temporal and spatial resolutions. “A farmer would need at least 150 days to make decisions about what crop to cultivate, depending on the rains”, he said.